Football predictions · built on numbers
Oddsy turns goals, expected goals (xG), form and club strength into a clear preview of every big match: who is likely to win, the most likely score, and how many goals to expect. Then we check ourselves against the final whistle.
Predicted score
Man City to win
Final score: Leipzig 2–3 Man City · spot on ✓
Who we are
Oddsy is a football analysis project for fans who want more than a gut feeling. Before the big games, we run each match through a statistical model and share the results in a simple, visual preview anyone can read in seconds.
Give every fan a clear, honest view of what the numbers say about a match: no hype, no guesswork, just data explained in plain words.
After every matchday we post our predictions next to the final scores. Good nights and bad nights, everything is shown, so you can judge the model for yourself.
Previews go out ahead of kick-off for the European club competitions, Europe's top 5 leagues and the big national-team tournaments, with kick-off times in GMT.
What we cover
Every season, Oddsy covers the three UEFA club competitions, Europe's top 5 leagues and the big international tournaments for national teams.
League phase and knockouts
League phase and knockouts
League phase and knockouts
England
Spain
Germany
Italy
France
The biggest tournament in football
The Euros
UEFA's national-team competition
Germany, France, Spain, England and more
Our previews
Every match preview follows the same simple layout, so you always know where to look.
One team is a clear favourite to win.
The predicted team wins more often than not.
A lean towards one side, but it's open.
No result stands out. We show the most likely score and a slight lean.
The percentage is the model's chance for the most likely result. The predicted score always agrees with the predicted winner.
How it works
Oddsy uses the same kind of approach professional football analysts use: rate each team's attack and defence, turn that into expected goals, then work out the chance of every possible score.
Every match of the season: goals scored and conceded at home and away, plus expected goals (xG), which measures the quality of chances created.
The last 5 matches count extra, so a team on a hot or cold run is reflected, without letting one result swing everything.
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating compared with an average side in its league, with home advantage built in.
On European nights, teams from different leagues are compared using a Europe-wide club rating, so a strong side from a weaker league isn't overrated.
Expected goals become a grid of every scoreline (0–0, 1–0, 2–1…). Adding them up gives the win, draw and goal chances you see in our previews.
Past meetings between the two teams give a small, capped adjustment. Strength and form matter far more than history.
All data comes from free, public football statistics sources and is refreshed every day. These are statistical estimates, not guarantees: football will always have surprises.
Spot on
A few of the predictions where our score before kick-off matched the final whistle exactly. After every matchday we post our predictions next to the final scores on Instagram, the good nights and the bad.
Champions League
Man City 56% to win · 2+ goals 93%
Spot on ✓Champions League
Dortmund to win · 2+ goals 77%
Spot on ✓Champions League
Arsenal to win · 2+ goals 68%
Spot on ✓Bundesliga
Dortmund to win · 2+ goals 82%
Spot on ✓Matchday with Oddsy
Before kick-off
Our three-slide preview for each big game: the match, the numbers and the prediction.
Next day
One poster for the whole matchday: our predictions against the final scores, with the night's totals.
Spot on
When we call a final score exactly, it gets its own post.
FAQ
Oddsy is a football prediction project. We use a statistical model to preview big matches and share who is likely to win, the most likely score and how many goals to expect, then we post how those predictions turned out.
No. Oddsy is made for football fans who enjoy stats. We don't take bets, we don't work with bookmakers and we don't give betting tips. Our previews are statistical estimates for entertainment and discussion.
The big games in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League; the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1; and national-team football: the World Cup, the Euros, the Nations League and international friendlies.
From free, public football statistics: season results and expected goals (xG), fixture lists, and a Europe-wide club strength rating. The data is refreshed every day.
It's the chance that the match has at least two goals in total, from either team. For example, 1–1, 2–0 and 3–2 all count; 0–0 and 1–0 don't.
A 60% favourite still fails to win 4 times out of 10. Red cards, injuries and one-off moments of brilliance can't be fully predicted. That's why we show percentages, not certainties, and why we publish every result.
All kick-off times in our previews are in GMT.
Yes. Send us a message on Instagram (@oddsy.11) with the match you'd like us to preview.
Never miss a matchday
Previews before every big game and results the day after. Find us at @oddsy.11.